Revolutions are rare events, but can they be predicted?  There is some new research that says that we can identify the areas most likely to experience social and political unrest.

Peter Drucker, the founder of the science of management, focused on the importance of understanding “the future that has already happened” when making decisions that can have long-term implications.  What does management science have to do with political revolutions?  The idea is that there is usually a time lag between changes in the underlying causes of events and the events themselves.  The key implication here is that if we can identify changes in these underlying causes then we can get some sense of when and how these changes will affect the future.

The most obvious example of a future that has already happened is the results of changes in population dynamics.  The implications of a change in the birth rate, for example, will not impact the labor market for another 20 years.  Recently, researchers at INSEAD have argued that social and political upheaval in the Arab world can be explained, in part, by changes in - you guessed it - population dynamics.

In particular, they argue that a key contributor to social unrest occurs when the population of “youth”, those who are between 15 and 29 years old, both rises rapidly and, perhaps more importantly, increasingly exceeds the population of “job makers,” those between the ages of 30 and 44.  They argue social upheaval becomes increasingly likely the more “youths” outnumber “job makers.”   Add to this a poor job market for those youths and rapid inflation and the seeds of social discontent are sown.

Not surprisingly, these exact conditions have been increasing in many Arab states over the last few years.  Most of the countries with the greatest likelihood for social unrest are in those that are experiencing social upheaval, including Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  This analysis also provides insight into which countries are most likely to experience social upheaval today and, perhaps more importantly, countries and regions that are likely to experience social upheaval in the future.

This analysis also does a very good job of explaining previous social and political upheavals.  For example, conditions were ripe for social unrest in China and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, when the Berlin Wall came down and when dissidents packed China’s Tiananmen Square.  In addition, similar conditions occurred in the United States and Western Europe in the late 1960s and early 1970s when protests and sit-ins were at their peak.

It is clear that not every upheaval leads to a successful revolution, so changes in population dynamics and worsening economic conditions are clearly not sufficient.  However, they are quite likely to be necessary.  While revolutions may start with the discontented youth, they ultimately need to attract those with power – such as elder leaders and those in the military (or perhaps even external military support) – to turn the general unrest into a successful revolution.