Revolutions are rare events, but can they be predicted?  There is some new research that says that we can identify the areas most likely to experience social and political unrest.

 

As the wave of unrest rolls across Africa and the Middle East, the leaders of each country must decide how to deal with the call for democratic reforms.  We have already seen a variety of responses, from Mubarak’s attempt at appeasement to Ahmadinejad’s swift and certain crackdown.  Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has tried to take a middle ground approach, offering the promise of a future of reforms but dispersing troops to rapidly quell any unsanctioned gathering.  The lessons from the most recent uprisings, as well as from uprisings throughout history indicate that, by offering the promise of reform, President Assad has made a strategic error that will ultimately lead to his downfall.